The path of Typhoon Fengshen and its warnings

Impact Scenario of Typhoon Fengshen

Typhoon Fengshen is continuing to intensify as it moves into the East Sea, becoming the 12th storm of the season by the morning of October 19. Due to the influence of cold air masses, the rainfall scenarios and the storm's impacts on mainland Vietnam are expected to undergo significant changes. Nevertheless, early and timely warnings remain a critical priority.

Forecasts indicate that by early morning on October 19, Typhoon Fengshen will make landfall in the Luzon Island area (Philippines). By afternoon and evening, the typhoon will traverse Luzon Island and enter the East Sea, officially designated as Storm No. 12.

After entering the East Sea, Storm No. 12 is projected to move primarily west-northwest, with its intensity continuing to strengthen. By around October 22, as the storm reaches the northern area of the Paracel Islands special zone, it could escalate to level 11, with gusts up to level 13.

The National Center for Hydro-Meteorological Forecasting reports that a key characteristic of Storm No. 12 upon entering the East Sea is the concurrent influence of cold air masses. These cold air blocks on the storm's western flank reduce the likelihood of a direct westward trajectory toward northern Vietnam or onward to China.

Consequently, upon reaching the Paracel Islands zone at its peak intensity of level 11 with gusts to level 13, Storm No. 12 is expected to encounter cold air intrusion, leading to gradual weakening. It is highly likely to downgrade to a tropical depression before affecting the central provinces' mainland.

Although the chances of the storm maintaining typhoon strength upon impacting central Vietnam's mainland are low, the combined effects of its circulation and cold air masses will cause persistent strong winds of level 6-8 or higher in the northern and central East Sea (including the Paracel Islands), the Gulf of Tonkin, and coastal waters from Quang Tri to Quang Ngai in the coming days. Sea waves could reach 3-4 meters, resulting in rough conditions.

Additionally, due to the post-storm circulation of No. 12 combined with cold air influences, widespread moderate to heavy rainfall is anticipated from October 23-26 in areas from Ha Tinh southward to Quang Ngai.

The interaction between cold air and typhoons represents one of the most variable weather patterns. If the storm arrives first followed by cold air, or if both coincide, it can trigger extremely heavy rains. Conversely, if cold air precedes the storm, rainfall tends to be less intense.

Early and Timely Warnings

Current rainfall scenarios and the storm's impacts on Vietnam's mainland remain heavily dependent on cold air developments. Experts emphasize the need for close monitoring of both the storm's path and cold air influences simultaneously.

Despite the unpredictable nature of weather patterns, early and timely warnings are the top priority to safeguard lives and property.

According to experts decoding the path of Storm No. 12, Fengshen is unlikely to affect northern provinces, with central regions bearing the brunt. The risks of heavy rain and water accumulation necessitate early preparedness plans in affected provinces to ensure safety and minimize damages.

Successive storms and overlapping floods have significantly disrupted residents' lives. In many low-lying areas, communities are reeling from losses inflicted by storm surges and flooding. Even in urban zones, impacts occur at various levels, with some scenarios unfolding beyond expectations.

For instance, in the operation of numerous construction projects in general—and elevators in particular—ongoing severe weather has sounded alarm bells. Flooding, leaks, and wind pressures have triggered incidents, malfunctions, and even unintended accidents and risks.

From a technical perspective, experts note that such risks can be mitigated if timely warnings and advisories are issued to the public.

Among the array of adverse effects on elevator systems during storm and flood seasons, flooding is particularly common, often compromising the equipment's usability, operational convenience, and safety.

Recent substantial damages amid back-to-back storms and floods have heightened community focus on practical measures to ensure elevator safety during such periods. Nguyen Thanh Trung, a resident of Terra An Hung urban area in Hanoi, observes that in many urban developments, apartments, and private homes, visible lessons from elevator breakdowns have become costly reminders against complacency. Maintenance, repairs, public awareness, and resident guidance are now prioritized.

Elevator Magazine continues to publish content advising the public on precautions and safety measures for using and maintaining elevators as the rainy and stormy season persists:

– Avoid using elevators during flooding or unstable power conditions: In stormy and flood-prone weather, refrain entirely from elevator use to ensure safety. Such conditions can cause power instability or short circuits, potentially trapping the cabin mid-floor and endangering users.

In buildings and apartment complexes, management must assess the situation, issue clear notifications, and guide residents to prioritize safety.

– Move elevators to higher floors and disconnect power:

+ Relocate all elevator cabins to upper floors, ideally midway up the shaft. This protects the cabin, counterweights, and cables from damage if water floods the pit at the lowest level.

+ For elevators with doors opening to the outdoors, position the cabin at the top floor to prevent water ingress onto the cabin roof through exterior door gaps.

+ After relocating cabins to higher levels, immediately disconnect the power supply to halt operations, averting risks of electric shock and short circuits during flooding.

– After the storm subsides:

+ Do not resume elevator use independently.

+ Contact professional elevator service providers promptly to inspect the equipment before restoring normal operations.